Freighter fleet growth forecasted to hit 2.3% compounded annual growth rate, Cargo Facts Consulting finds

Forecast is part of CFC’s newly released 20-Year Freighter Forecast for the period 2026–2045

NEW YORK, NY, UNITED STATES, April 7, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- The global freighter fleet will continue a steady growth rate for the next 20 years, according to a new forecast released today by Cargo Facts Consulting (CFC).

The latest edition of CFC’s flagship 20-Year Freighter Forecast provides a comprehensive outlook on global freighter fleet development through 2045.

The updated Forecast projects the global jet freighter fleet to grow to 3,459 aircraft by 2045 from 2,215 aircraft in Q1 2026, representing a 2.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), CFC finds. This growth reflects a balanced combination of fleet expansion and replacement of aging aircraft.

Over the next 20 years, the industry is expected to add approximately 2,539 aircraft, including:

- 1,244 aircraft supporting net fleet growth

- 1,295 aircraft replacing retirements

“This forecast highlights a market that continues to evolve structurally, not just grow,” said Guillermo Ochovo, Director of Cargo Facts Consulting. “Replacement demand is becoming just as important as expansion, particularly as aging fleets exit and new-generation platforms take their place.”

Cargo Facts Consulting has been providing an annual forecast of the freighter fleet’s size and growth for more than 30 years.

Narrowbody freighters will continue to represent the largest share of fleet additions, with over 1,000 aircraft added through 2045, driven by express, e-commerce, and regional network requirements. Meanwhile, medium widebody aircraft are expected to play a central role in fleet replacement, reflecting their versatility across both regional and long-haul operations.

Large widebody freighters, while smaller in absolute numbers, will see the highest proportion of growth-driven additions, with approximately 64% of new aircraft supporting expansion rather than replacement.

Passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions are expected to remain a key pillar of fleet development, particularly in the narrowbody and medium widebody segments, although feedstock constraints and rising acquisition costs continue to shape conversion activity.

At the same time, the forecast underscores a significant wave of retirements, with a large portion of today’s fleet expected to phase out over the next two decades. By 2045, only around 920 aircraft from today’s fleet are expected to remain in service, highlighting the scale of the upcoming fleet renewal cycle.

For more information or to access the full Forecast, please visit Cargo Facts Insights.

ABOUT CARGO FACTS CONSULTING

Cargo Facts Consulting (CFC) is the premier aviation consulting and advisory firm specializing in the air cargo, express, e-commerce, and freighter aircraft markets. The firm provides advisory services, transaction support, proprietary market intelligence, and strategic insights to airlines, lessors, manufacturers, and logistics providers worldwide. With decades of industry expertise and proprietary datasets, CFC supports fleet strategies, network planning, market entry and expansion, and an array of industry transactions.

For additional commentary related to this release, please reach out Guillermo Ochovo, Director, Cargo Facts Consulting at gochovo@cargofacts.com

Guillermo Ochovo
Cargo Facts Consulting
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